The perception and adaptation of herdsmen to climate change and climate variability in the desert steppe region of northern China

Abstract

The herdsmen in the desert steppe region in Northern China live primarily on the native rangelands. The semiarid climate has a profound impact on the economy and the livelihood of rural communities. Adaptation to the highly variable climate is the norm in pastoral management in the region but the increasing aridity and variability projected by climate change models provides new challenges for sustainable living in the harsh environment. The study surveyed the herdsmen’s perception of climate change and variability in the desert steppe region of Inner Mongolia, and compared it with the observed climatic patterns and the recorded disastrous climatic events. The existing rangeland and livestock management strategies used by local herdsmen to cope with variable climate were also investigated in order to assist in the development of better management adaptation strategies. The herdsman perceived temperature changes over the past 30 years, which matched well with the meteorological observations, while their perceived change in precipitation (decrease) did not agree with the meteorological records (no change). The discrepancy between the observed and perceived precipitation changes may have arisen from the combination of large seasonal and inter-annual fluctuation of precipitation, more recent drought years and a herdsmen’s desire to have a ‘wet year’, and more forage demand from increased livestock numbers. Herdsmen also had a reasonably good perception of strong wind/dust storms and snow storms, and their sensitivity to these extreme disastrous climatic events appeared to be related to the perception of drought. The herdsmen had better perceptions of recent short-term climate change and possibly to use it to assess the long-term changes. The major adaptive management strategies to cope with disastrous climatic events included selling livestock, buying feed, seeking other grazing resources, housing livestock and looking for other alternative jobs to compensate for the economic loss. Grazing other resources, either the reserved winter rangelands in the growing season in current household farm systems or the common winter rangelands in a traditional nomadic system, played a vital role in buffering the effects of extreme climatic events. Setting appropriate stocking rates and growing forage crops in suitable land areas may contribute to increasing the resilience of rangeland systems. Raising the herdsmen’s awareness of long-term climate change and its effects on rangelands is needed to improve their preparedness to adapt to the future climate.