Abstract
BackgroundThe frequency and intensity of heat waves is projected to increase in many parts of the world, particularly in regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), where the warming trends are much larger than the global average. The relationship between air temperature and premature mortality is widely recognized, however, it is not well defined in the aforementioned region.The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between cardiovascular mortality risk and air temperature in Cyprus, an island located centrally in the EMME.MethodsDaily cardiovascular mortality data and spatially aggregated daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures for the period 2004-2010 were analyzed using a case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag non-linear model.ResultsA relationship between high temperatures and cardiovascular mortality was observed for cerebrovascular diseases, ischaemic and other heart diseases; this relationship was exacerbated on days with high temperatures. The highest relative risk was observed on the day of the heat event and remained significantly elevated for another day. The results were consistent regardless whether the minimum, maximum, or mean temperatures were used, although the association seems to be more pronounced with the mean temperatures, which suggests that consecutive high day- and night-time temperatures are the most hazardous.ConclusionsThe identification of a positive relationship between high temperatures and cardiovascular mortality in Cyprus raises concerns. In view of the projected climate changes and strong increases in extreme heat events in the region, appropriate interventions need to be developed.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12940-015-0025-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
The frequency and intensity of heat waves is projected to increase in many parts of the world, in regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), where the warming trends are much larger than the global average
Following scientific consensus on the projected global warming, an overall substantial increase in air temperature, at least partially induced by humans, has been observed, while heat waves are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity in the future [5]
The present study focuses on heat-related cardiovascular mortality in the southern part of Cyprus, the area that is under the control of the Republic of Cyprus
Summary
The frequency and intensity of heat waves is projected to increase in many parts of the world, in regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), where the warming trends are much larger than the global average. Following scientific consensus on the projected global warming, an overall substantial increase in air temperature, at least partially induced by humans, has been observed, while heat waves are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity in the future [5]. A recent study showed that the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region is a climate change hotspot where temperatures increase more rapidly than elsewhere. Within the 20th century, in many locations throughout the EMME region, warming trends of 0.4°C per decade were observed, Lubczyńska et al Environmental Health (2015) 14:39 a tendency that is much larger than the global average [6]. It is projected that this will continue in future and will be combined with a significant reduction of rainfall giving rise to a dramatic increase in hot weather extremes in most parts of the region [7]
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