Health state assessment model for complex systems: Trade-off accuracy and robustness in belief rule base

Abstract

In complex system, health state assessment can determine the state of the system and identify potential system problems. However, due to the numerous uncertainties and variations present in complex systems, it is difficult to effectively construct assessment models. Belief rule base (BRB) can use data-driven and knowledge-driven methods to effectively address uncertain information, and is widely used for modeling health state assessments of complex systems. The primary modeling and optimization goals of BRB is currently at accuracy, ignoring the impact of robustness on complex systems, and the reliability of the model is reduced. Therefore, this article introduces a novel method to balance the accuracy and robustness of BRB models. This method enhances the performance of the BRB model in assessing complex system health and provides valuable guidance for engineering applications. Firstly, the guidelines for BRB modeling are systematically summarized to address the trade-off between accuracy and robustness. This provides essential guidance for constructing BRB models during the model-building process. Secondly, four feasible domain criteria are proposed to enhance the reliability of the BRB during the model optimization process. A modified multi-objective optimization algorithm is proposed based on the feasible domain criteria. Finally, in the case studies of aerospace relay and lithium-ion battery health assessments, the MSE of the proposed model for aerospace relay health assessment is 0.0015 with a Lipschitz constant of 6.73, while for lithium-ion battery health assessment, the MSE is 0.0013 with a Lipschitz constant of 24.17. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model has an advantage in terms of the trade-offs between both robustness and accuracy.