Health Index Prediction of Overhead Transmission Lines: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

This paper presents an asset health index (HI) prediction methodology for high voltage transmission overhead lines (OHLs) using supervised machine learning and structured, unambiguous visual inspections. We propose a framework for asset HI predictions to determine the technical condition of individual OHL towers to improve grid reliability in a cost-effective manner. The paper focuses on asset HI prediction and the selection of the most parsimonious model. Based on the technical specifications and HI data, our methodology allows for the prediction of a HI for OHLs without HI data, and models asset aging behaviour. Technical specifications and the HI as defined in this paper are taken from the Estonian TSO periodical visual inspections implemented in 2018. The case study successfully demonstrates that the proposed methodology can predict tower HI values for a single OHL with nearly 80 percent accuracy without the need for additional measurements.