Advanced Methodology for Estimation of Value of Lost Load (VOLL) Using Equipment Specific Health Indices

Abstract

This paper presents advanced method to estimate expected VOLL based on equipment specific health index (HI) values for the determination of probability of failure (PoF). PoF calculations are traditionally based on historical failure data and in order to increase the accuracy of the VOLL in this paper, a new method based on equipment specific HI values is introduced. The aim of the proposed methodology is to increase the accuracy of expected VOLL estimation, especially for high voltage overhead lines (OHLs), where there is little to no asset failures in the grid and therefore relying on historical failure data may cause significant errors in the asset management decision-making. This paper includes case study of implementing the methodology in Estonian transmission system.