Health and adverse selection into marriage: evidence from a study of the 1958 British Birth Cohort

Abstract

Despite much research on the relationship between marital status and health, the confounding effects of marital selection are not well understood. Even less is known about ‘adverse selection’, the phenomenon that people with poor health or health related attributes have a higher chance of marriage. Using data from the National Child Development Study, a longitudinal study of the 1958 British birth cohort, this paper examines the effects of factors that can select single people into early or later marriages. The selection factors are from three domains, namely, health status, socio-economic status, and risk-taking behaviour. It is found that, from age 16–23 y, adverse selection is prevalent. People from a lower socio-economic background and smokers are more likely to be married. This has the potential to suppress any association between marriage and health. Meanwhile, men with medical problems are less likely to marry. At ages from 23–33 y, adverse selection reduces and those who have better life chances are more likely to get married. This has the potential of creating a spurious relation between marriage and health. These findings shed light on the understanding of the confounding effects of marital selection according to different life stages.