Abstract

Abstract. Ocean deoxygenation is recognized as key ecosystem stressor of the future ocean and associated climate-related ocean risks are relevant for current policy decisions. In particular, benefits of reaching the ambitious 1.5 ∘C warming target mentioned by the Paris Agreement compared to higher temperature targets are of high interest. Here, we model oceanic oxygen, warming and their compound hazard in terms of metabolic conditions on multi-millennial timescales for a range of equilibrium temperature targets. Scenarios where radiative forcing is stabilized by 2300 are used in ensemble simulations with the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Transiently, the global mean ocean oxygen concentration decreases by a few percent under low forcing and by 40 % under high forcing. Deoxygenation peaks about a thousand years after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions are established after AD 8000 in our model. Hypoxic waters expand over the next millennium and recovery is slow and remains incomplete under high forcing. Largest transient decreases in oxygen are projected for the deep sea. Distinct and near-linear relationships between the equilibrium temperature response and marine O2 loss emerge. These point to the effectiveness of the Paris climate target in reducing marine hazards and risks. Mitigation measures are projected to reduce peak decreases in oceanic oxygen inventory by 4.4 % ∘C−1 of avoided equilibrium warming. In the upper ocean, the decline of a metabolic index, quantified by the ratio of O2 supply to an organism's O2 demand, is reduced by 6.2 % ∘C−1 of avoided equilibrium warming. Definitions of peak hypoxia demonstrate strong sensitivity to additional warming. Volumes of water with less than 50 mmol O2 m−3, for instance, increase between 36 % and 76 % ∘C−1 of equilibrium temperature response. Our results show that millennial-scale responses should be considered in assessments of ocean deoxygenation and associated climate-related ocean risks. Peak hazards occur long after stabilization of radiative forcing and new steady-state conditions establish after AD 8000.

Highlights

  • Oxygen (O2) is a sparingly soluble gas and its abundance in the ocean is decreasing under ongoing global warming (IPCC, 2013)

  • Decreasing O2 concentrations, warming and changes in other environmental parameters forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pose high risks for marine ecosystems (Gattuso et al, 2015)

  • Implications and conclusion In Bern3D, strong deoxygenation in all basins is projected to peak long after the end of the 21st century, and new steady-state conditions establish after AD 8000 in scenarios where radiative forcing is stabilized in the century

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Summary

Introduction

Oxygen (O2) is a sparingly soluble gas and its abundance in the ocean is decreasing under ongoing global warming (IPCC, 2013). We assess the effectiveness of the Paris climate targets in reducing hazards of decreasing oceanic oxygen, ocean warming and marine export productivity as simulated by the Bern3D Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Simulations are run to year AD 10 000 by which time the ocean has reached new steady-state conditions This allows us to assess reversibility and the full amplitude of changes, acknowledging the long equilibration timescale of biogeochemical variables with peak hazards potentially occurring long after stabilization of radiative forcing in the atmosphere. Often a near-linear relationship is found between the change in a variable of interest and the change in SAT as simulated across the range of scenarios and ensemble members at a distinct time This allows us to develop new metrics to quantify avoided marine hazards per unit change in SAT at different points in time.

Bern3D
Ensemble and scenarios
Pre-industrial characteristics
Findings
Implications and conclusion
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