Hazards due to earthquakes and asteroids: synergetic analysis and estimation of global risk

Abstract

For the first time the seismic process is treated on the basis of the evolutionary kinetic equations for dispersed media. It is shown that the Gutenberg —Richter relationship N(M(E)) ∼ E−y, 1/3<y<1, has its origin in the intermediate asymptotic solution n(E,t) of the kinetic equations (Vityazev, Pechernikova, 1997). Some data for the global manifestation of the asteroid hazard are presented. For the first time the combined effect of the hazard due to both asteroids and remotely triggered seismicity (seismic storms) after rather large (r >200 m, Ek ∼ 1025 erg) body falls is discussed. The probability of such a seismic storm in the next 100 yrs for any region of the Earth with R > 103 km from site of fall is ∼< 10−4 taking into account the probability (∼ 10−2) of impact. The maximum global risk is connected with possible destruction of atomic power stations (APS) and nuclear waste depositories, large chemical plants, dams and etc.