Hazardous weather affecting European airports: Climatological estimates of situations with limited visibility, thunderstorm, low-level wind shear and snowfall from ERA5

Abstract

The consistently growing demand for airline transportation has resulted in increased air traffic and air operations in airports across the world. According to the International Air Transport Association, forecasts assume that in the year 2036 about 7.8 billion passengers will travel using air transport. In Europe, it is estimated that 16.2 million flights will take place in 2040, 53% more than in 2017. One of the crucial factors that significantly affect air transportation is the weather. In this article, ERA5 reanalysis and a 40-year timeframe (1979–2018) are used to construct the European climatology of environmental proxies associated with hazardous weather conditions causing disruptions in airline traffic. These include situations with limited visibility, thunderstorm, low-level wind shear, and snowfall. Results indicate that northern Europe and mountain zones are the most often affected by unfavorable weather conditions, while southern Europe is the least affected. Winter has the highest estimated number of situations with low-level wind shear and snowfall conditions. Situations with limited visibility are the most frequent in autumn and winter while thunderstorms are the main threat during summer over continental Europe and autumn in the Mediterranean area. Long-term changes of the analyzed proxies indicate that situations with low-level wind shear and snowfall are becoming less frequent while the number of thunderstorms generally increases, particularly over northern, central and south-central Europe. A decrease of situations with limited visibility is observed over majority of Europe with the exception of Scandinavia and parts of central Europe.