Hazardous Near Earth Asteroid Mitigation Campaign Planning Based on Uncertain Information on Asteroid Physical Properties

Abstract

Given a limited warning time, an asteroid impact mitigation campaign would hinge on uncertainty-based information consisting of remote observational data of the identified Earth-threatening object, general knowledge on near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and engineering judgment. Due to these ambiguities, the campaign credibility could be profoundly compromised. It is therefore imperative to comprehensively evaluate the inherent uncertainty in deflection and plan the campaign accordingly to ensure successful mitigation. This research demonstrates dual-deflection mitigation campaigns consisting of primary and secondary deflection missions, where both deflection performance and campaign credibility are taken into consideration. The results of the dual-deflection campaigns show that there are trade-offs between the competing aspects: the total interceptor mass, interception time, deflection distance, and the confidence in deflection. The design approach is found to be useful for multi-deflection campaign planning, allowing us to select the best possible combination of deflection missions from a catalogue of various mitigation campaign options, without compromising the campaign credibility.