Abstract
Este trabajo examina la convergencia en América Latina durante el período 1960-2008, por medio de técnicas de cointegración a través de pruebas de raíces unitarias con cambios estructurales. El estudio se centra en la convergencia tanto de la región en relación con los EE.UU como a nivel intrarregional, es decir, entre los distintos países con respecto a la Argentina, el país con mayor ingreso per cápita a nivel regional en este período. A pesar del alto crecimiento económico de América Latina en la última década, en general, la evidencia indica que esto no fue suficiente para provocar la convergencia, ni hacia EE.UU, ni a nivel intrarregional. En lugar de ello, los resultados podrían sugerir que la brecha entre los países permanece en el largo plazo, o incluso la existencia de divergencia.
Highlights
Convergence still holds a relevant place in the macroeconomic agenda
They take into account the role of higher oil prices as a possible driver of a convergence of 13 OPEC economies toward U.S, while this paper focuses on determining whether the fast growth associated to higher commodities prices since the 2000s could provoke convergence between the region and U.S in Latin America there is a broader sample of exportable commodities besides the oil products, so that more favorable external conditions could foster economic growth and convergence to a higher income level
There the convergence was estimated by means of panel data, while here this is analyzed with a time series approach, by means of cointegration technique and unit root tests with structural breaks
Summary
Convergence still holds a relevant place in the macroeconomic agenda. The theoretical foundation can be traced back to Solow (1956), who states that in presence of exogenous technical progress and decreasing returns, from an initial stock of per capita capital and income level, an economy converges to a long-run steady-state. This paper includes the recent fast economic growth of the last decade, which has been associated with more favorable external conditions, and higher prices of commodities exported by these countries In this sense, this paper extends the work presented by Cuñado and Pérez de García (2011) for the case of Latin America. There the convergence was estimated by means of panel data, while here this is analyzed with a time series approach, by means of cointegration technique and unit root tests with structural breaks This follows the contribution of Cuñado and Pérez de García (2011), who argue that two countries or two sets of them converge if their GDP are cointegragrow faster than the richer economies and surpass them, so that the dispersion of per capita income can be the same or even higher than that of the beginning.
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