Have Adolescents Become Too Ambitious? High School Seniors' Educational and Occupational Plans, 1976 to 2000

Abstract

This article tracks changes in high school seniors' educational and occupational plans over a twenty-five year period and assesses whether these plans have become increasingly unrealistic. Comparisons of seniors' career plans with the contemporaneous achievements of high school graduates confirms that high school seniors' ambitions outpace what they are likely to achieve, a gap that is growing over time. Teenagers' increasingly expect that community college will serve as an avenue for higher degrees and professional jobs. Together with the declining influence of grades and curricular track on students' educational and occupational plans, this provides additional evidence that teenagers have become too ambitious. Finally, longitudinal analyses of three cohorts of high school seniors confirm that the positive association between educational plans and attainments is on the decline.