Has the Sleeping Giant Awakened in Kansas? An Overview of Latino Voting Behavior in the Sunflower State

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to provide a contemporary look at Latino voting behavior in the state of Kansas. Data collected from the United States Census Bureau are synthesized with historical records to outline the growth of the Latino population in the state. This analysis describes the size of the Latino population of Kansas and specific Hispanic origins of Latino Kansans, both of which affect their electoral impact. The focus then shifts to examining pre-electoral polls, exit polling data, US Census estimates of voter registration and turnout, and additional relevant research from the 2018 and 2020 elections. The analysis reveals that the Latino (predominantly Mexican American) population in Kansas has grown exponentially in the past century (especially since 1970) and the "sleeping giant" is beginning to show signs of awakening in the Sunflower State. Most saliently, the current and future importance of the Latino vote in Kansas and nationwide is demonstrated by the fact that beginning in 2020, Latinos likely surpassed the African American share of the electorate in the US and may have already done so in Kansas. A second finding is that Kansas Latino voters reflect the voting behavior of Latinos nationwide. Lastly, when the Latino vote is taken into consideration alongside the African American vote in Kansas, this electoral coalition was decisive in the 2018 gubernatorial election and may tilt future close elections in the state.