DIVERSITY AND POTENTIAL: THE LATINO ELECTORATE IN THE 2016 ELECTIONS

Abstract

IntroductionLatinos1 are the fastest growing ethnic minority group living in the United States today. The Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965 removed immigration quotas and opened the door to a wave of immigrants from Latin America. From 6.3 million largely US-born citizens in 1960, the Latino popu- lation has grown to 55.3 million people - 17.4% of the total US population in 2014. The US census bureau estimates that by 2060, 119 million Latinos will reside in the United States and account for over a quarter of the population.2Accordingly, Latinos are the fastest growing ethnic group among eligible voters in the United States. An estimated 27.3 million Latinos - 11.3% of the potential US electorate - will be eligible to vote in the 2016 elections. Based strictly on voter turnout trends from presidential election years dating back to 2000, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund estimates that 13.1 million Latinos will cast ballots, which would mark a 17% increase in turnout and an 8.7% increase in the Latino share of vote since the last presidential election in 2012.3On February 29, 2016, American University's Center for Latin American and Latino Studies and the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies jointly sponsored the second Annual Latino Public Affairs Forum (ALPAF), which considered the potential impact of the Latino vote on the 2016 elections.4 Panel discussions were based around three primary questions:* What effect will Republican positions and rhetoric have on Latino voters?* Are Democrats building upon or losing their historic advantage among Latino voters?* Are there other wild card factors that might influence the impact of the Latino vote?Participating scholars, practitioners and advocates who spoke at ALPAF 2016 identified a number of key points to keep in mind when considering the potential impact of the Latino vote on the 2016 elections, including:* Latino voters are not a homogenous voting bloc. Not only can they trace their family heritage to various parts of Latin America, but they also reside throughout the United States. In 2016 they will be younger and better educated than past Hispanic electorates, and the issues they care about are issues that all US citizens care about. Indeed an increasing number of them are citizens by birth and, even for those who are naturalized rather than birth citizens, they think of themselves primarily as US citizens rather than as members of an immigrant community.* Immigration is a significant wedge issue that at times has served to mobilize the Latino community in opposition to nativist, anti-immigration rhetoric and policies. Historically this has benefited the Democratic Party and disadvantaged the Republican Party. Given the shifting demographic makeup of the United States, ALPAF panelists were largely in agreement that to triumph in national elections the GOP must abandon the hostile rhetoric that has at times characterized its approach to immigration.* Education, the economy, and health care are the day-to-day policy issues most concerning to Latinos, and their positions on these issues do not map `strictly along conventional divides between conservative and liberal stances. While Democrats have generally done well among Latinos, ALPAF panelists noted that this segment of the electorate is concerned with issues that go well beyond immigration. On the Republican side, ALPAF panelists identified local and state elections as the most promising sites for developing a base of Latino support predicated on shared aspirations for economic opportunity and entrepreneurialism. It is in these sub-national electoral spaces that GOP candidates can eschew the national party's immigration issues and instead focus on concerns that may have a wider appeal within the Latino community.* Turnout remains the top factor limiting Latinos' political influence. …