Hanoi's Strategic Surprise, 1964–65

Abstract

In late 1964 and early 1965, American intelligence failed to predict North Vietnam's shift to a strategy of decisive large-unit warfare. The Americans acquired a large amount of accurate information on Vietnamese Communist capabilities but were late in identifying one key change in enemy capabilities, the deployment of North Vietnamese Army regiments to South Vietnam. Misled because of inadequate intelligence collection and analysis, the administration of President Lyndon Johnson pursued a strategy of restraint that encouraged the enemy to seek a swift victory.