Habitat suitability of Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Iran in future

Abstract

The conservation of top predators’ habitats such as the leopard (Panthera pardus) is one of the most effective ways to conserve biodiversity because of wide home range and habitat requirements. Accordingly, in this study, we used species’ habitat suitability modeling to survey the current and future habitat suitability of the Persian leopard in Iran. Sixty-two change scenarios (CC scenarios) (by 19 global climate models under four representative concentration pathways) were used to model future habitat suitability of the Persian leopard in Iran by MaxEnt model. Our results showed that prey availability is a key habitat variable to predict habitat suitability for leopard, and Capra aegagrus is the most important prey for this species in Iran. So, the distribution of Capra aegagrus plays an important role to model habitat suitability of the Persian leopard in Iran. The results also showed that 63% of the current suitable habitats will be decreased over 63 years. The results also showed a considerable change of suitable habitats which can threat long-term survival of this species in Iran. Our results revealed that one of the most important threats for the Persian leopard in future is changing suitable habitat due to climate change. Therefore, identifying and protecting potential habitats and minimizing human activities within areas are essential for current and future conservation.