Abstract
Within the European project CONFIDENCE, an extensive research programme has been conducted on a range of different tools, including Apps, SMS, numerical, narrative or mixed news messages and videos linked to uncertainty communication following potential nuclear or radiological emergencies. For this purpose, qualitative and quantitative research methods were applied in different European countries. Based on the results of these studies, we have formulated guidelines for efficient and effective communication about uncertainties that can be used in nuclear or radiological emergencies.
Highlights
Communicating uncertainty requires that the facts relevant to recipients’ decisions are identified, that the relevant uncertainties are characterized and their magnitude assessed, and that possible messages are drafted and their success evaluated (Fischhoff and Davis, 2014, p. 13671).Uncertainty communication needs to be strategic, meaning that it should follow the objectives of emergency management and planning
Research postulates that whenever a claim is made that aims to persuade the public of behaving in a certain way, for instance when an immediate behaviour is required in an emergency, “evidence” is needed to substantiate this claim for it to be considered valid by the recipient and to advocate a change in his or her behaviour (Wojcieszak and Kim, 2016). Such a change in behaviour may be about consuming food products, in the case of food risk communication, or ensuring that the public understand the importance of waiting with the uptake of iodine tablets in case of a radiological emergency
We described developments and tests of communications tools performed within the CONFIDENCE project
Summary
Communicating uncertainty requires that the facts relevant to recipients’ decisions are identified, that the relevant uncertainties are characterized and their magnitude assessed, and that possible messages are drafted and their success evaluated (Fischhoff and Davis, 2014, p. 13671). Uncertainty communication needs to be strategic, meaning that it should follow the objectives of emergency management and planning. It should be theory-based with respect to, for example, behaviour, information processing, social science, risk communication, and evidence-based in the sense that uses empirical data, surveys, observations or experiments. Communication about uncertainty should not be based on gut feelings and subjective opinions on “what may work” or what experts “would like to tell”. This means that uncertainty communicators need to consider public perceptions, motivations, expectations and concerns, all of which are likely to differ from experts and from emergency to emergency. Based on the overall results of these studies, reported in detail in Perko et al (2019a), we have formulated guidelines for efficient and effective communication about uncertainties
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