Guest Editorial: That Was Then, This Is Now

Abstract

This is not my first JPT editorial. In fact, it is more than 16 years since that was published - sufficiently long ago that I initially put my invitation to write this piece down to an error. When it became clear that was not the case, I wondered what I should use this opportunity to say. I had entirely forgotten what I had written about in February 2004. Reading that editorial again was slightly uncomfortable, and I found myself wincing at parts. Setting that discomfort aside, when I thought about when the piece was written, as much as what I had said, I was struck by the parallels and contrasts with the world that we live in today. That insight led me to test what I believe to be important for the oil and gas industry of tomorrow. Facewhat? Compared to 2004 I am, broadly speaking, much the same; perhaps a little wiser. I still have a keen interest in (my words), or pointless obsession with (other people’s words), fonts, text editors, pre-1980s programming languages, and units of weights and measures. I could add more to this list, but I don’t want to come across as too nerdy. While I have remained constant, at least in spirit, some things were profoundly different at the start of 2004. US Oil Production Had Been in a Long Period of Decline. During 2003 the US produced around 5.6 million B/D of crude oil, including lease condensates. Production had been declining steadily from its peak in the mid-1980s. In my editorial I wrung my hands at the slow pace of uptake of methods to improve well productivity and drive down well costs. As far as the US was concerned, I needn’t have worried: a productivity revolution was underway that would profoundly affect not only the shape of the US oil industry, but the supply/demand balance of the entire world. The factory drilling of highly stimulated horizontal wells took US crude production from 5 million B/D in 2008 to more than 12 million B/D by the end of last year. Facebook Did Not Exist. Facebook was launched in February 2004. Gmail was announced in April the same year. Twitter was not “a thing” until 2006. In a world where something has become so pervasive, it is hard to imagine that the term “social media” had no meaning for most people in 2004. Today, social media is deeply entrenched in our working practices: it is central to the way that companies communicate with their employees and with the public; it provides the means by which we advertise and apply for jobs; people use WhatsApp groups to collaborate on projects because it is better than the tools provided by their employers. The impact upon our personal lives is perhaps even more dramatic. Although the positive influences of being hyperconnected should not be underestimated - a point I’ll come back to later - cyber-bullying was no real cause for concern in 2004, nor was the impact of social media on major political events. SARS-CoV Did Not Have a Number. By the end of 2003, the SARS epidemic had been reduced to a few sporadic outbreaks. The coronavirus genome that caused the disease had earlier been classified as SARS-CoV. Today it is known as SARS-CoV-1 and its baby brother, CoV-2, is currently wreaking havoc across the world. At a time when the oil and gas industry was already wrestling with oversupply, COVID-19 has managed to destroy demand by an unprecedented level, and the oil and gas industry has been plunged into another downturn. I hear people using phrases like “the coronavirus fog is lifting,” but I’m not so sure - I think we have just adapted rather quickly to working in the fog.