Growth trends and forecasting of fish production in Assam, India using ARIMA model

Abstract

Fish is an essential component of the diet of the most populace in Assam and fish farming has been one of the sources of livelihood in rural areas. Assam ranks first in fish production among North-eastern states of India. However, fish production is not sufficient to meet the demand despite having vast aquatic resources in the state. The present study was undertaken to determine the decadal growth of fish production in the state using the compound growth rate. The study also attempted modeling and forecasting of fish production in Assam using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology. For the present study, time-series data on fish production in Assam from 1980-81 to 2018-19 was obtained from the Directorate of Fisheries, Government of Assam. Data for the period 1980-81 to 2014-15 was utilized to build an ARIMA model and validated through the remaining data from 2015-16 to 2018-19. The best suitable model for the state’s fish production was ARIMA (1,1,0) based on the values of the model selection criterion. The actual fish production and forecast values using a fitted model were in close agreement. The out-of-sample forecast values of fish production in the state for the subsequent years 2019-20 to 2022-23 showed an increasing trend from 336.97 to 358.21 thousand metric tonnes. Considering the vast aquatic resources in the state, the study calls for serious attention by policymakers, researchers, and developmental agencies for harnessing the potential of fisheries resources for making the North-east region self-sufficient in fish production as a whole and Assam in particular.