GROWTH RATE, TRENDS AND FORECAST ANALYSIS OF WHEAT DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP IN NIGERIA

Abstract

The study analyzed the growth rate, trends and forecast of wheat demand-supply gap in Nigeria. The study made use of time series data spanning from 1990 to 2020. Data on the variables for the study were collected from the archives of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and analyzed using both descriptive such as mean, maximum and minimum with trend graphs and inferential statistics such as Growth model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Findings of the study revealed that supply of wheat in Nigeria within the study period ranges from 32,600 tons to 169,961 tons with mean of 79609.97 tons. Wheat demand ranges between 427575 tons and 8142811 tons with a mean of 4153978 tons during the period of study. However, the demand has not been met as there is a widening demand-supply gap of 99%, indicating that demand of wheat has a higher growth rate than supply. The result further revealed a stagnating instantaneous growth rate (IGR) of 9.2% for demand and a decelerating IGR of 1.4% for supply but an accelerating IGR of 9.4% for the wheat demand-supply gap. The study also forecasted an increase in demand from 8078642.57 tons in 2021 to 10002488.59 tons in 2030 and wheat supply increase from 40306.22 tons in 2021 to 94707.54 tons in 2030. The demand-supply gap will consequently increase from 7860173.39 tons in 2021 to 9628172.33 tons in 2030. Consequently, the study recommended that Government and other players in the sub-sector should encourage the high production of wheat in the country to boast domestic supply so as to reduce the wheat demand-supply gap.