ASSESSESSMENT OF THE GROWTH OF SWEET POTATO OUTPUT AND YIELD IN NIGERIA (1970 – 2020) AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD PRODUCTION.

Abstract

The study assessed the growth of sweet potato output and yield in Nigeria (1970 - 2020) and its implications on food production. The study basically relied on the use of time series data spanning from 1970 to 2020. Data on the variables for the study were collected from the archives of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World bank database. Data for this study were analyzed using both descriptive such as mean, maximum and minimum with trend graphs and inferential statistics such as Johansen co-integration, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The result of the trend model revealed that the coefficient for estimating the growth of sweet potato output was positive (0.103) and significant at 1% with an accelerated pattern of growth; the coefficient for estimating the growth of sweet potato yield was negative (-0.033) and significant at 1% with a decelerated pattern of growth while the coefficient for estimating the growth of sweet potato yield was positive (0.0369) and significant at 1% with an accelerated growth pattern. The compound growth rates of sweet potato output, yield and food production was 10.88%, -3.31% and 3.76% respectively. The result of the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test indicated that all the variables were found to be stationary on first differencing and Johansen co-integration mechanism indicated that there was co-integration among the variables. The results of the ARIMA forecast showed that in the next decade, sweet potato output will be 4697194.87 tones; sweet potato yield will be 0.78 tones/hectare and the index of food production will be 117.71. The study concluded that sweet potato output significantly contributes to food production in Nigeria both in the short and long run. Therefore, the study recommended that Governments at all levels and policy makers should promote sweet potato production as the crops has enormous potentials to increase food production in Nigeria.