Climate Change and Food Production in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security in Nigeria

Felix O Idumah,Paul T Owombo,Chimezie Mangodo,Uyinmwen B Ighodaro

doi:10.5539/jas.v8n2p74

Abstract

<strong></strong><p>Food production in Nigeria is largely dependent on natural environmental resources like rainfall, temperature and relative humidity. This study examined the impact of some of these climatic variables on food production in Nigeria from 1975 to 2010. Secondary time series data obtained from FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization statistics) and Nigerian Meteorological Agency were used for the study. The data were analyzed using some econometric tools such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Test and Vector Error Correction (VEC) Estimates. The ADF test reveals that relative humidity integrated at order zero level while rainfall and temperature and agricultural output were stationary after differencing at level 1 thus showing that the variables had relationship. The results of the Johansen co-integrated test revealed that there is one co-integrating equation at 5% showing a co-integrating relationship between agricultural output and the climatic variables. The Vector Error Correction Estimates indicated that rainfall was positively significant at 5% to food production on the short run indicating that vagaries in climate especially rainfall affected food production and output in Nigeria. It was recommended, therefore, that measure that could help to mitigate the adverse effects of inadequate rainfall e.g. irrigation, drought resistant crops varieties among others should be put in place by the government. Farmers should equally be sensitized and trained in the area of adaptation and mitigation of the effect of climate change as this will go a long way to ameliorate large scale failure in food production in the country.</p>

Highlights

Food production system generally depends on a number of factors which include human, technological and natural elements
This study examined the short run and long run relationship between some climatic variables namely: rainfall, temperature and relative humidity and agricultural output in Nigeria using some time series data from 1975 to 2010
The study has been able to establish that climatic data are related to food production both in the short run and long run

Summary

Introduction

Food production system generally depends on a number of factors which include human, technological and natural elements. The natural elements consist of land and water resources as well as climatic variables comprising of temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, etc. There have been vagaries of the climatic variables globally which have given rise to the current climate change phenomenon that has become a recurring decimal in local, national and international discourse. This has become a major source of concern because of their impact on food security especially in the developing countries. The variables that are commonly used by meteorologists to measure daily weather phenomena are air temperature, precipitation (e.g., rain, sleet, snow and hail), atmospheric pressure and humidity, wind, and sunshine and cloud cover (FAO, 2008)

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