GROWTH IN A TIME OF DEBT: AN APPLICATION TO THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY USING THRESHOLD REGRESSION (TR) MODEL

Abstract

This paper examines Egypt’s external debt and how it impacted economic growth over the period (1970- 2020). The development of external debt and its indicators were studied and the performance of economic growth was analysed using the Threshold Regression (TR) model. This indicated that Egypt's external debt had gotten out of hand. The findings of this paper demonstrate that external debt has a positive impact on the economy growth in Egypt before reaching External debt stocks to GNI 42.45%, as the increase in the ratio of external debt by one unit will lead to an increase in economic growth by 0.093.