Abstract
Bangladesh positioned as third rice producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969-70 to 2019-20 were used to investigate the growth and trend by periodic, regional, seasonal and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, where Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e., 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) increasing trend was observed in the most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing with a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984-85 to 2019-20. High yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and less contributor regions to ensure rice security of Bangladesh.
Highlights
Rice (Oryza sativa) is the third major cereal grain [1] and more than half of the world population consumes its as a staple food [2]
We found that historically the area coverage of Boro rice has increased significantly whereas the area of Aus and Aman season significantly decreased from 1969–70 to 2019–20
The production contribution of the Boro rice has increased from 16.1% to 53.7% and the increasing rate is 0.97% per year
Summary
Rice (Oryza sativa) is the third major cereal grain [1] and more than half of the world population consumes its as a staple food [2]. Rice is the staple food in Bangladesh and accounting for approximately 78 percent of the country’s total net cropped areas cultivation. The country achieves an autarky to meet up the rice demand for its 169.04 million peoples from 11.55 million hectares of cultivated gross area [5, 6]. Rice production has been increased three-fold from approximately 11 MT in 1971–72 to about 36.6 MT in 2019–20 [7]. This revolution has transformed the country from so called “Bottomless Basket” to a “Full of Food Basket”. Bangladesh recently placed the third position worldwide in rice production, behind China and India, with a production volume of 3.6 crore tonnes [1]
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