Growth and Instability Analysis of India’s Food Grain Sector in the Post Liberalisation Period

Abstract

Background: Having a population growing at an annual average rate of 1.2 per cent and more than half of its total size depend on primary sector for their livelihood, agricultural sector occupy significant role in the economy of India. The extent of area, production and productivity of food grains and their instability therefore attracts special attention. The present study thus analyses the performance of agricultural sector in India in terms of trend in growth and instability of area, production and productivity of food grain during the three decades of liberalisation. The specific objectives are (i) to examine the growth rate and instability in area, production and yield of food grains in India and (ii) to explain the decomposing changes in the variability of food grains production in India. Methods: In this field-laboratory investigation during 1990-91 to 2018-19, official secondary data has been utilized. Statistical tools like Least Square Growth Rate, Coefficient of Variation of area, production, and yield etc. have been applied for analysis. Result: The study highlighted that area under food grain cultivation remained almost stagnant. However, the overall food grain production registered growth rate of 2 per cent while the production instability was 15.88 per cent. The trend lines fitted to the production of foodgrains shows positive growth rate. The co-efficient of determination (R2) shows 87 percent for production and 92 percent for productivity which determines scope for further production for India. But in area it shows just 3.9 per cent. The result of the study shows that the production of food grains has increased with due instability during given the time period. It also calls for adopting alternate production technologies which will further improve the productivity of food grains to meet increasing demand from the growing population.