Abstract
The effect of climate change on future groundwater conditions in the Toyserkan basin in western Iran has been studied. In recent years, overexploitation for agricultural activities has led to water-table decline. Groundwater recharge rate predictions in the study area were obtained from the RCP4.5 Scenario of the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and HadGEM2 General Circulation Model. Outputs were downscaled with the RegCM4 Regional Climate Model coupled to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM 4.5). RegCM4 model validation and prediction were attempted for 7 years (1999–2005) and 11 years (2015–2025), respectively. Validation results showed that RegCM4 reasonably simulated daily precipitation and monthly temperature and runoff. Firstly, geological, geophysical and hydrogeological data were used and evaluated to develop the conceptual model. Secondly, a 3D numerical model of groundwater flow was developed in order to describe the groundwater regime and predict the effects of water management strategies. Two scenarios were defined for the prediction period. The first scenario assumes that current exploitation rates will be continued, while the second one assumes a 20 percent decrease in pumping due to increased irrigation efficiency. The results showed a water-table rise from 2015 to 2025, which is heightened by increase in irrigation efficiency.
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