Grounding risk quantification in channel using the empirical ship domain

Abstract

Ship groundings in channels pose substantial risks to human safety and economic stability. Existing quantitative models inadequately factor in risks related to ship deviations from the channel and variations in ship grounding susceptibility. We propose a grounding risk quantification framework utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and empirical ship domain, designed to assess risks from channel deviations or shallow water approaches. We build an empirical ship domain model, then develop a spatial grounding risk function considering ship sensitivity variations across directions. By exploring spatiotemporal relationships between ships and unnavigable waters, we quantify and normalize grounding risk. We apply this framework to the Yangtze River Estuary channel, finding higher grounding risk in the main channel than in the small ship channel due to smaller widths, shallow water, and the small ship channel entrance’s proximity to the anchorage. This provides valuable support for channel management and shipping safety.