Ground Risk Map for Unmanned Aircraft in Urban Environments

Abstract

The large diversity of unmanned aircraft requires a suitable and proper risk assessment. In this paper, we propose the use of risk maps to define the risk associated to accidents with unmanned aircraft. It is a two-dimensional location-based map that quantifies the risk to the population on ground of flight operations over a specified area. The risk map is generated through a probabilistic approach and combines several layers, including population density, sheltering factor, no-fly zones, and obstacles. Each element of the risk map has associated a risk value that quantifies the risk of flying over a specific location. Risk values are defined by a risk assessment process using different uncontrolled descent events, drone parameters, environmental characteristics, as well as uncertainties on parameters. The risk map is able to quantify the risk of large areas, such as urban environments, and allows for easy identification of high and low-risk locations. The map is a tool for informed decision making, and our results report some examples of risk map with different aircraft in a realistic urban environment.