Ground motion estimation at Guwahati city for an Mw 8.1 earthquake in the Shillong plateau

Abstract

In this paper, the ground motion at Guwahati city for an 8.1 magnitude earthquake on Oldham fault in the Shillong plateau has been estimated by stochastic finite-fault simulation method. The corresponding acceleration time histories on rock level at several sites in the epicentral region have been computed. These results are validated by comparing them with the estimates obtained from Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) intensity observations of 1897 Shillong earthquake. Using the local soil parameters, the simulated rock level acceleration time history at Guwahati city is further amplified up to the ground surface by nonlinear site response analysis. The results obtained are presented in the form of peak ground acceleration (PGA) contour map. The maximum amplification for PGA over Guwahati city is as high as 2.5. Based on the simulated PGA, the liquefaction susceptibility at several locations in the city has been estimated. The results are presented in the form of contours of factor of safety against liquefaction at different depths below the ground surface. It is observed that over a large part of the Guwahati city, the factor of safety against liquefaction is less than one, indicating that the city is highly vulnerable to liquefaction in the event of this earthquake. The contour maps obtained can be used in identifying vulnerable areas and disaster mitigation.