Abstract
Information on global future gridded emissions and land-use scenarios is critical for many climate and global environmental modelling studies. Here, we generated such data using an integrated assessment model (IAM) and have made the data publicly available. Although the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) offers similar data, our dataset has two advantages. First, the data cover a full range and combinations of socioeconomic and climate mitigation levels, which are considered as a range of plausible futures in the climate research community. Second, we provide this dataset based on a single integrated assessment modelling framework that enables a focus on purely socioeconomic factors or climate mitigation levels, which is unavailable in CMIP6 data, since it incorporates the outcomes of each IAM scenario. We compared our data with existing gridded data to identify the characteristics of the dataset and found both agreements and disagreements. This dataset can contribute to global environmental modelling efforts, in particular for researchers who want to investigate socioeconomic and climate factors independently.
Highlights
There are three main domains of future climate change research: climate simulations performed mainly with earth system models (ESMs) or general circulation models using greenhouse gas (GHGs) and air pollutant (AP) emission data and land-use data; impact, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) models that assess climate impacts using future climate information and socioeconomic conditions; and GHG and AP emission scenarios and climate change mitigation policy assessments performed with integrated assessment models (IAMs)
The first set of scenarios includes the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)[1], which have been used extensively in studies cited by the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and conducted mainly by the ESM and IAV communities
Similar to the RCPs, the SSPs are supposed to be for use by the ESM, IAV, and IAM communities; the number of scenarios in the full scenario matrix is too large for use in ESMs
Summary
There are three main domains of future climate change research: climate simulations performed mainly with earth system models (ESMs) or general circulation models using greenhouse gas (GHGs) and air pollutant (AP) emission data and land-use data; impact, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) models that assess climate impacts using future climate information and socioeconomic conditions; and GHG and AP emission scenarios and climate change mitigation policy assessments performed with integrated assessment models (IAMs). Similar to the RCPs, the SSPs are supposed to be for use by the ESM, IAV, and IAM communities; the number of scenarios in the full scenario matrix is too large for use in ESMs. As a compromise, the ScenarioMIP (Scenario Model Intercomparison Project) of the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) created a protocol to select representative scenarios for use in CMIP6 exercises that allows them to cover sufficiently a rational and practical range of mitigation levels and socioeconomic development patterns[10]. The ScenarioMIP data were originally created with five IAMs with different characteristics in the representation of emissions and land-use dynamics This means that these data encompass inherent SSP characteristics, and IAM model fingerprints, which do not allow users to isolate pure SSP dimensions. Data file naming convention and how it can be used, and technical data comparison with the currently available data is shown
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