Gri Tahmin ve Markov Modeli ile Türk İmalat Sanayinin Satış Gelirinin Öngörüsü

Abstract

Turkish manufacturing industry has been increasingly important with the adoption of free market economy. It has become the driving force of the Turkish economy in terms of employment, production and exports. In terms of capital ownership, in Turkish manufacturing industry; public, private and foreign capital type companies operate in different status. The aim of this study is to predict the sales income trends of the public, private and foreign capital types operating in different positions in terms of capital ownership in the Turkish manufacturing industry through the Grey and Markov model. The grey model for estimating the total sales revenue of the firms, and the new Markov approach based on the quadratic programming model for their trends have been proposed. These models were used to forecast the total sales of firms for the period 2004-2014 and to estimate the trends of 2017-2022 period. In the scope of the research, the sales revenues of Turkey's largest 500 industrial firms, operating in the manufacturing industry were analyzed. The analyzed dataset covers the period 1993-2014. As a result of the analyzes, it has been found that in the Turkish manufacturing industry, the weight of public capital is gradually decreasing and that the private capital has a high level of penetration.