Greenhouse Gas Intensity in Canada: A Look at Historical Trends

Abstract

A central pillar of the Canadian government's recent greenhouse gas plan is to decrease the greenhouse gas intensity of production. We consider the proposal in light of historical trends between 1990 and 2002 by decomposing the change in emission intensities into composition and technique effects using a divisia index approach. Our results demonstrate that the proposed policy would push businesses into reductions in emission intensities that they have not previously accomplished. It would not be business as usual. Our analysis also suggests that achieving these targets by technological improvements alone may be quite difficult