Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction in the electricity sector: Implications of increasing renewable energy penetration in Ghana's electricity generation mix

Abstract

The development and deployment of renewable energy technologies into the national electricity generation mix have high potential in the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the sector, which contributes to about 40% of GHG emissions globally. Ghana through the Nationally Determined Contributions has pledged to reduce GHG emissions by 15% unconditionally, especially in the electricity sector which is one of the major contributors of GHG in the country. The study explores how the impact of increasing renewable energy penetration in the electricity generation mix will have on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction from the sector. Four electricity supply scenarios were developed in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) using existing renewable energy targets identified in Ghana's Renewable Energy Master Plan. These, including, the Business as Usual (BAU), 10%, 20% and 30% renewable energy penetration scenarios were modelled to assess GHG emissions reduction up till 2030 by replacing the thermal generation sources in the electricity generation mix with equivalent amounts of renewable energy sources. Electricity demand projections for the various consumption sectors including residential, non-residential, special load as well as street lighting were made from 2016 to 2030 based on historical data. The model projected the demand for electricity to rise from 10,129.0 GWh in 2016 to 24,151.4 GWh in 2030. The cumulative demand of 237,570.5 GWh was met in all four scenarios with a total installed generation capacity of 3,794.6 MW. GHG emissions for the BAU scenario rose cumulatively to 52,545.2 thousand MtCO2eq in 2030 but reduced to 46,178.3 thousand MtCO2eq, 41,603.2 thousand MtCO2eq and 38,332.6 thousand MtCO2eq in the 10%, 20%, and 30% renewable energy penetration scenarios respectively. The result indicates that renewable energy deployment could lead to the attainment of GHG emission reduction substantially leading to minimising effects on climate change.