Abstract
Understanding the underlying reasons for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends in different countries is fundamental for climate change mitigation. This paper identifies the main determinants that affect GHG emissions growth and assesses their impact and differences among countries in Europe. Previous studies have produced inconclusive results and presented several limitations, such as the lack of quality of the data used, the reduced identification of determinants and the use of methods that did not enable hypothesis testing. Conversely, this research identifies an extended list of determinants of GHG emissions, performs an in-depth statistical analysis and contrasts the significance of determinants using panel data and multiple linear regression models for the period 1990–2017 for the main Eurozone countries. The study found that GDP and final energy intensity are the main drivers for the reduction of GHG emissions in Europe. Furthermore, energy prices are not significant and heterogeneous results are found for the renewable energy, fuel mix and carbon intensity determinants, pointing to a different behavior at the country level. The uneven impact of the main determinants of GHG emission growth suggest that a differentiated application of European policies at country level will enhance the efficiency of mitigation efforts in Europe.
Highlights
According to the latest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory of the European Union (EU), the total GHG emissions for the 28 EU countries (EU28) decreased by 23.45% from 1990 to 2017
This research identifies an extended list of determinants of GHG emissions, performs an in-depth statistical analysis and contrasts the significance of determinants using panel data and multiple linear regression models for the period 1990–2017 for the main Eurozone countries
The results of previous research are inconclusive and several deficiencies affected the results obtained
Summary
According to the latest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory of the European Union (EU), the total GHG emissions (excluding Land Use and Land Use Change and Forest—LULUCF—emissions) for the 28 EU countries (EU28) decreased by 23.45% from 1990 to 2017. The EU attributes this decrease in GHG emissions to a combination of factors, such as improved energy efficiency, the growing share of renewables, the use of less intensive carbon fuels and the economic recession [1]. The main contributor to EU28 GHG emissions at the sector level in the period 1990–2017 is the energy sector, with a contribution that ranges from 77.0% in 1990 to 77.9% in 2017. The second largest contributor to EU28 GHG emissions is the agriculture sector, with a participation in national total emissions that ranged from 9.6% in 1990 to 10.2% in 2017. The third and the fourth highest emitting sectors in the EU28 were the industrial processes and product use (IPPU) and waste sectors, with contribution ranges for the period 1990–2017 of 9.2–8.7% and 4.3–3.2%, respectively.
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