Zero carbon-emission technology route construction and multifactor analysis of aluminum production in China

Abstract

China is the largest aluminum producer and consumer in the world. Given the energy intensive nature of processing aluminum, China faces enormous pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The trends of GHG emissions from aluminum production in China from 2021 to 2060 were obtained by building a technologic roadmap and multifactor analysis model containing the factors of energy structure, technology improvement, and product structure under 9 scenarios. Based on the cost estimation model, the cost of technology application was calculated. Meanwhile, the variation in the drivers of energy-related GHG emissions over time for different scenarios was identified by adopting the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) approach. The results indicated that the GHG emissions of 1 t aluminum production cycle showed a decreasing trend for all 9 scenarios but could not be completely eliminated; hence, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology should be considered for integration into the production system to achieve zero emissions. The application of technologies could bring benefits along with the carbon market development of China and obtain cobenefits from energy savings and other pollution eliminated. Production volume and energy structure were positive factors in the increase in GHG emissions, and emission intensity, energy intensity, and product structure offset the growth in GHG emissions. Finally, proposals were provided for a zero-carbon development path for aluminum production in China.