Abstract
For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.
Highlights
For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world
Some key findings are: automakers in China will face increasing difficulty in meeting the Dual Credit policy before 2030; under all credible scenarios, the new energy vehicles (NEVs) will increase its market share, but the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) will still dominate the passenger vehicle stock through 2040; under the Dual Credit policy, the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet would not peak until 2032; the GHG peak would be brought to 2028 if the GHG emissions of electricity used by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are properly accounted for in the Dual Credit policy
Two scenarios representing extreme market transformations are used to demonstrate the differences in life-cycle GHG emissions achieved by adopting different vehicle technologies to meet government regulations: one where ICEV technology improves rapidly and another where BEV market penetration increases rapidly
Summary
China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. A marketpenetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. We use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. China’s vehicle market has grown to become the largest in the world, and the growth in vehicle ownership has increased liquid fuel demand as well as GHG emissions in the transportation sector. The Chinese government has pledged to aggressively reduce its overall carbon footprint and increase energy efficiency Speaking, these goals include peak GHG emissions on or before 2030, and reducing 2030 CO2 emissions per unit GDP by 60–65% relative to 2005 emissions[3].
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