Green Economy Mega-Project Selection with TODIM: avoiding the Hindsight Bias

Abstract

Hindsight bias is a common problem in project management decision making. Past events are easily interpreted as more predictable than they were, influencing the course of new decision-making. This article explores and analyzes the adoption of the TODIM method to minimize the negative effects of hindsight bias in the selection of alternatives in a multipath logistic mega-infrastructure project. The study involved identifying potential sources of bias, identifying, and developing criteria for evaluating alternatives to the best course of action for the project. Finally, the study highlights benefits and limitations of the decision-making support method to deal with hindsight bias in project management. Identifies that MCDA methods can be a valuable tool for project managers to overcome hindsight bias and make sustainable decisions. Overall, this article adds to the growing literature on the use of multi-criteria decision support methods in project management and offers practical insights for practitioners seeking to minimize the effects of hindsight bias.