The Effect of Visual Hindsight Bias on Radiologist Perception

Abstract

To measure the effect of visual hindsight bias on radiologists' perception during chest radiograph pulmonary nodule detection. This was a prospective multi-observer study to assess the effect of hindsight bias on radiologists' perception. Sixteen radiologists were asked to interpret 15 postero-anterior chest images containing a solitary lung nodule each consisting of 25 incremental levels of blur. Participants were requested initially to detect the nodule by reducing the blur of the images (foresight). They were then asked to increase the blur until the identified nodule was undetectable (hindsight). Participants then repeated the experiment, after being informed of the potential effects of hindsight bias and asked to counteract these effects. Participants were divided into two groups (experienced and less experienced) and the nodules were given different conspicuity ratings to determine the effect of expertise and task difficulty. Eye tracking technology was also utilised to capture visual search. Wilcoxon analysis demonstrated significant differences between foresight and hindsight values of the radiologists (p = 0.02). However, after being informed of hindsight bias, these differences were no longer significant (p = 0.97). Friedman analysis also determined overall significance in the hindsight ratios between nodule conspicuities for both phases (phase 1: p = 0.02; phase 2: p = 0.02). There was no significance difference between the experienced and less experienced groups. This study demonstrated that radiologists exhibit hindsight bias but appeared to be able to compensate for this phenomenon once its effects were considered. Also, visual hindsight bias appears to be affected by task difficulty with a greater effect occurring with less conspicuous nodules.