Green artificial intelligence for cost-duration variance prediction (CDVP) for irrigation canals rehabilitation projects

Abstract

This research introduces Automated Cost-Duration Variance Prediction (CDVP) system to empower project managers to proactively predict project budget, duration, cost variance and duration variance. The research involved the development and comparison of a total of 48 machine learning (ML) algorithms, with 12 algorithms dedicated to each predictive model. To conduct the study, a dataset comprising 1277 historical cases of Field Canals Improvement Projects (FCIPs) was utilized. Factor analysis and stepwise regression analysis were employed for feature selection where five key drivers were identified from the initial 25 parameters. The paper optimized the performance of each algorithm based on Bayesian optimization. The proposed system produces four outputs: project cost, project cost variance, project duration, and duration variance. The developed ML models were able to predict all of the system’s outputs with an adjusted determination coefficient R2 score greater than 0.93 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) less than 8.97. Environmentally, this research recommends to assess CO2 emissions as a performance criterion to select the low environmental impact algorithms. As a result, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and AdaBoost Regressor were green sustainable algorithms that emitted on average 58 and 69 CO2e grams per computational hours. To enhance interpretability, the study employed the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique to provide explanations for the key drivers.