Optimized machine learning models for predicting crown convergence of plateau mountain tunnels

Abstract

The precise prediction of tunnel convergence holds significant importance in ensuring the safety and efficiency of tunnel construction. This study involves the construction of seven machine learning (ML) models that are deemed reliable for predicting crown convergence (CC) of plateau mountain tunnels. These models include K-nearest neighbour (KNN), support vector regression (SVR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), categorical boosting (CatBoost), and automated machine learning model (Auto-ML). The Bayesian optimization (BO) technique and the Tree-based pipeline optimization tool (TPOT) were employed to optimize the hyperparameters of non-automated machine learning models and the automated machine learning model, separately. A total of 2,734 samples of crown convergence monitoring data were collected for training and testing the models. The evaluation metrics employed to assess the performance of the models’ predictions included the determination coefficient (R2), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The XGBoost model demonstrated the best prediction performance with the R2, MAPE, MAE, and RMSE of 0.9887, 0.1271, 0.7759, and 1.1845 on test set. The XGBoost, CatBoost, and Auto-ML models were utilized to predict the crown convergence monitoring curves of four sections of Huzhubeishan Tunnel in Qinghai Province, China. Notably, the predicted curves exhibited a significant level of concordance with the actual monitoring curves. The results of Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) suggested that time, tunnel depth ratio and groundwater table were more important than other input variables. The XGBoost model showed the best robustness of prediction performance across varying dataset sizes for seven distinct machine learning models.