Abstract
Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.
Highlights
Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal
Using a regional climate model (RCM; Modéle Atmosphérique Régional, MAR2,38–41)—which explicitly models important polar processes such as the surface mass balance (SMB), snow properties, and radiative transfer—to downscale six Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5th Phase (CMIP5) RCP8.5 and five CMIP 6th Phase (CMIP6) SSP585 global climate models (GCMs) projections to a higher spatial resolution, we find a cumulative increase of twenty-first century GrIS melt by +28,500 Gt (+7.9 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) until 2100) and on average a 22 days longer melt season in the CMIP6 simulations
Using the statistical connection between Greenland temperature anomalies from GCMs and the annual SMB from our high-resolution simulations, we find a more pronounced GrIS mass loss across all CMIP6 scenarios when compared to CMIP5
Summary
Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of the Polar Amplification signal. We show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. Using a regional climate model (RCM; Modéle Atmosphérique Régional, MAR2,38–41)—which explicitly models important polar processes such as the surface mass balance (SMB), snow properties, and radiative transfer—to downscale six CMIP5 RCP8.5 and five CMIP6 SSP585 GCM projections to a higher spatial resolution, we find a cumulative increase of twenty-first century GrIS melt by +28,500 Gt (+7.9 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) until 2100) and on average a 22 days longer melt season in the CMIP6 simulations. Our results highlight that the GrIS could potentially lose ice faster in a warming climate than the previous CMIP5-based estimates suggested
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