Great expectations—future scenarios for production and use of biogas and digestate in Sweden

Abstract

Sweden aims to increase biogas production from anaerobic digestion (AD) from 2 to 7 TWh/year until 2030. This paper investigates the requirements, challenges and implications of such a development through qualitative and quantitative assessment of three scenarios. Seven key elements—national policies and policy instruments, regional policies and policy instruments, mobilization of feedstock, infrastructure for feedstock and gas, mobilization of actors, new production facilities, and stable and increasing demand—were defined for the scenario construction and were also used to structure the comparative analysis. Quantitatively, increasing the biogas production from 2 to 7 TWh is estimated to require up to 5 times larger digester volume and up to 12 times more AD plants, meanwhile producing 6–8 times more biofertilizers. While a centralized production structure would be more efficient, a decentralized structure with small biogas plants would facilitate the logistics of agricultural substrates and biofertilizers. New production capacity could be incentivized through new and increased production subsidies, as well as an increased demand for renewable energy. Regardless of how the goal is to be achieved, it will require collective efforts from both public and private actors to overcome the many challenges on the way.