Grains Production Prospects and Long Run Food Security in Egypt

Hamdy Sayed Abdou Abdelaal,Dawn Thilmany

doi:10.3390/su11164457

Hamdy Sayed Abdou Abdelaal, Dawn Thilmany

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164457

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Journal: Sustainability	Publication Date: Aug 17, 2019
Citations: 20	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Minia University, Colorado State University

Abstract

Egypt’s population growth, scarce resources, and a struggling economy threaten its capacity to achieve food security. Water is of particular interest at this juncture given impending development projects under increasingly uncertain climate conditions. The main objective of this research is to forecast grains production in Egypt under different productivity scenarios, based on annual data from 1980 to 2017, to estimate and forecast cultivated area. Findings suggest that the potential reduction in the Nile flows into Egypt will adversely impact agricultural production, especially during the summer season, reducing cultivated areas and decreasing crop yields. These findings suggest that Egypt’s reliance on imports will continue and grain imports will increase as the population grows and opportunities to reclaim lands remain limited. If food security and concerns about reliance on food imports persist among leaders, future policy options should focus on increasing water-use efficiency and raising productivity of both land and water.

Highlights

A fast-growing population, dwindling access to already scarce resources, and a struggling economy threaten Egypt’s capacity to achieve long-run food security
The main objective of the analysis presented is to forecast grains production in Egypt under different productivity scenarios and inform future policy and agricultural investments seeking to address the potential risk posed to food security
Water availability will allow the country to augment croplands through reclamation and, the coefficient on water usage was statistically significant and large for the three crops

Summary

Introduction

A fast-growing population, dwindling access to already scarce resources, and a struggling economy threaten Egypt’s capacity to achieve long-run food security. Part of the challenge for food security is based on escalating demand as Egypt’s population grew to 95 million people in 2017, up from 73 million people in 2006 [4]. Assuming no change (constant fertility and constant mortality), Egypt’s population is estimated to increase to 123 million by 2030 and further to 174 million by 2050 [6]. This growing population will aggravate food insecurity by increasing the demand for food and by exacerbating the burden and access to agricultural resources considering development pressure (housing and urbanization) has historically resulted in the loss of scarce fertile lands, and the degradation of limited water resources

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