An Exploratory Simulation Model for Rice Consumption and Production in Egypt

Abstract

As in many countries around the world, rice is considered an essential food crop for achieving food security in Egypt. Egypt is one of the biggest producers and consumers of rice in the world. With the continuous degradation of arable lands, increase of population, and shortage of water, rice supply chain needs to be studied to offer insights on how the Egyptian government can face such challenges to guarantee food security for its people. This research aimed to study the balance between rice production, consumption, and exports in Egypt using data through the period 1990 to 2012. A system dynamics model was developed to simulate the interactions among various variables affecting that balance and to allow projecting the results to the year 2030 as a means for predicting potential future threats and to avoid food shortage.