Abstract
Abstract. Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001), and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.
Highlights
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) witnesses an increased trend while 17.03% of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades
A significant upward trend of crop growth over the past three decades was observed for all global major crop zones, i.e., the Central Europe and Russia (Eur_Rus) zone (R2 = 0.68, p < 0.001), East China zone (R2 = 0.24, p = 0.005), North America zone (R2 = 0.58, p < 0.001), South Australia zone (R2 = 0.29, p = 0.002), Southeast Latin America zone (R2 = 0.73, p < 0.001), Southwest Africa zone (R2 = 0.59, p < 0.001), Southwest Asia zone (R2 = 0.62, p < 0.001), West Europe zone (R2 = 0.64, p < 0.001), and West Latin America zone (R2 = 0.66, p < 0.001)
When plotting the time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) (MODIS/Time) significant linear regression slope values against time-series Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) (GIMMS/Time) significant linear regression slope values for cropland areas at a global scale (Figure S6b), it shows clear that the majority of pixels have a slope value lager than 0, and the density scatter shows the densest proportion falls into the 1-to-1 areas with a high correlation between MODIS and GIMMS NDVI change trend
Summary
NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03% of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. Propelled by a 2.3-billion global population growth and higher per capita incomes anticipated through the mid-21st century, global demand for agricultural crops is increasing and may continue to witness an upward trend for decades Biophysical effects of climate change on agricultural production will be positive in some agricultural systems and regions, and negative in others, and these effects will vary issue including the four key dimensions of food supplies: through spatial and temporal difference (Parry et al 2004)
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