Global wind power development leads to high demand for neodymium praseodymium (NdPr): A scenario analysis based on market and technology development from 2019 to 2040

Abstract

In recent years, to cope with climate change, the global energy structure has been subject to constant transformation. Wind power has become one of the main forms of renewable energy, and as basic equipment in wind power generation, wind turbines have become more technologically advanced over the years. Neodymium praseodymium (NdPr) has become the key material for the most recent permanent magnet wind turbines. Therefore, the development of the global wind power market has a great impact on the demand for NdPr. This paper sets three scale scenarios of the future wind power market—a baseline scenario, a development scenario and a rapid development scenario—and estimates recycling potential from end-of-life (EOL) wind turbines using a dynamic material flow model. The results show that under different scales, the demand for NdPr ranges from 2.28E+05 to 7.88E+05 t during 2019–2040. In the long term, the rapid rise in offshore wind power projects will promote recycling technology as a promising strategy for diversifying the NdPr supply.