Global wind energy resources decline under climate change

Abstract

Wind energy is poised to play a major role in the energy transition. The objective of this work is to investigate the effects of climate change on global wind energy resources. For this purpose, a multi-model ensemble is constructed with selected Global Climate Models. Climate change is considered through the most recent scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We find a significant decline in wind resources by 2100 relative to current levels. The decline is particularly evident in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere – heavily populated regions where it matters especially, given the need for renewable energy production to increase substantially to decarbonise the energy supply. Exceptions to the global decline do exist, but in tropical and polar regions, far less populated. Depending on the climate-change scenario and the region, by 2100 changes may exceed 30 % of current average wind power density values. Additionally, we uncover a global increase in the variability of wind power density regardless of the scenario, which may be expected to affect the production of wind energy and its integration into the electricity networks. Recognising these effects of climate change is important in planning the energy transition and, more specifically, the contribution of wind energy.