Global warming in a nonlinear climate - Can we be sure?

Abstract

Picture this. It’s Sunday morning and you are standing on the first tee of your local golf club, ready for that all-important first drive of the day. Settling yourself over the ball, and freeing your mind of extraneous thoughts, you begin your swing. But, half way through, a big drop of rain hits you squarely on the top of your head! It’s too late to abort the swing, and with your state of concentration momentarily disturbed, your golf club strikes the ball well off centre and it ends up in a thick patch of rough, 50 yards to the right of the tee. As you walk up to the ball, the rain drops begin falling more frequently. By the time you hit your second shot, which only succeeds in moving the ball into yet deeper rough, the rain becomes persistent. At this point, you think to yourself: wait a minute, they never said anything about rain on the weather forecast last night! And so you continue your round, cursing in equal measure, your inelegant golf swing, the miserable weather and those lousy weather forecasters. Eighteen torrid holes later, you return to the club house, soaked through and in a generally foul mood. Someone turns on the TV to catch the 1 O’Clock news. Top stories are the Prime Minister’s commitment to tackle the problem of climate change, and a related report that the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor has proclaimed climate change as the most serious problem facing humanity - more serious even than the terrorist threat. You’ve never had a view on climate change - until today. You mutter under your breath “Nothing but hot air - those bloody weather forecasters can’t even get tomorrow’s weather right!”