Global trends in the burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to type 2 diabetes: An age-period-cohort analysis.

Abstract

To assess temporal trends of chronic kidney disease (CKD) attributable to type 2 diabetes (T2D) globally and in five sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. We extracted the population data and CKD burden attributable to T2D from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We evaluated the trends of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, prevalence and incidence through age-period-cohort modelling, and calculated net drifts (overall annual percentage changes), local drifts (annual percentage changes in each age group), longitudinal age curves (fitted longitudinal age-specific rates), period relative risks (RRs) and cohort RRs. From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of CKD attributable to T2D showed increasing trends in general. The burden of CKD attributable to T2D was highest in the middle SDI region and lowest in the low SDI region. Age effects increased with age, and peaked at the ages of 75-79 and 80-84 years for incidence and prevalence, respectively. Period RRs in the burden of CKD attributable to T2D increased, with the high SDI being the most remarkable in DALYs and mortality, and the middle SDI being the most notable in incidence. Cohort RRs showed unfavourable trends in incidence and prevalence among recent cohorts. After a lengthy period of multi-initiative diabetes management, the high-middle SDI region exhibited improvement. However, unresolved issues and improvement gaps were still remarkable. Future efforts to reduce the burden of CKD attributable to T2D in the population should prioritize addressing the unfavourable patterns identified.