Global Three-Dimensional Emission Inventory for Launch Vehicles from 2009 to 2018

Abstract

Launch vehicles enable Earth observation, terrestrial navigation, communication, and space exploration. In doing so, they emit chemicals including carbon dioxide, water vapor, chlorine, alumina, black carbon, and other species that contribute to climate change and ozone depletion. With commercial launches increasing and new engines being developed, the impact of rocket launches must be reassessed. This work introduces a global three-dimensional inventory of stoichiometric emissions from rocket launches between 2009 and 2018. We calculate fuel burned and emissions as functions of altitude using publicly available data and a physics-based trajectory model. We estimate that 140 kt of carbon dioxide were emitted in total, and that 79 kt of water vapor, 5 kt of chlorine, and 8 kt of alumina were emitted above the tropopause between 2009 and 2018. All those emissions were produced in the Northern Hemisphere, of which 65% were from Russian and American launches. The number of launches and emissions of carbon dioxide are increasing over time, whereas water vapor and chlorine emissions have decreased since 2009 with the retirement of the space shuttle. Our results constitute the first global, spatially resolved inventory of launch emissions; and they are a critical step toward fully understanding the environmental effects of launch vehicles.